Bush loses no-hit bid in eighth as Brewers bash Phillies

Baseball Betting Lines

04/23/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Braun and Bill Hall belted homers, while Dave Bush took a no-hitter into the eighth and pitched a solid 7 2/3 innings to lead the Milwaukee Brewers past the Philadelphia Phillies, 6-1, in the rubber match of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park.

Bush carried a no-hitter into the home half of the eighth inning and retired pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs on a grounder to lead off. Pinch-hitter Matt Stairs then ruined Bush's hopes by belting a 3-1 cutter into the upper deck in right field. Bush was replaced by reliever Mitch Stetter after retiring Jimmy Rollins and giving up a single to Shane Victorino. Chase Utley grounded out to end the inning.

The 29-year-old Bush (1-0) allowed just one run on two hits with four strikeouts and three walks. Bush, who was attempting to become the second player in club history to toss a no-hitter, lowered his ERA to 3.86.

Braun went 2-for-3 with a two-run homer for the Brewers, who won 3-1 on Wednesday. Prince Fielder went 2-for-4 with three RBI.

Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels left the tilt in the fourth after being hit on the left shoulder by a Fielder line drive. Hamels (0-2), who was diagnosed with a left shoulder contusion, gave up two runs on four hits to go along with six strikeouts.

The Phillies, who posted an 11-4 victory in the opening game of the series on Tuesday, finished with just two hits and lost for the fifth time in their last seven games.

Gamblig Baseball Betting News

<< Satisfaction kills in the NBA
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Author Louis L'Amour once said, "Nobody got anywhere in the world by simply being content." Years earlier Ralph Waldo Emerson said, "I hate quotations. Tell me what you know." Fair enough Ralph -- here's what I know...

<< NHL suspends Flames F Roy
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Hockey League on Thursday suspended Calgary Flames forward Andre Roy one game and fined him $2,500 for an incident prior to Wednesday's contest. In the pre-game warmups before Calgary

<< Maryland's Vasquez declares for NBA Draft
College Park, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Maryland junior guard Greivis Vasquez has decided to submit his name for the NBA Draft, but won't hire an agent to give himself the option of returning to school. The 6-foot-6 Vasquez averaged 17.5 poi

<< Barca's Eto'o hails in-form Iniesta
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona striker Samuel Eto'o described Andres Iniesta as the best player in the world after the midfielder stole the show in Wednesday's 4-0 demolition of Sevilla. The result keeps Barca on track

<< Stoke rules out Beattie, Higginbotham
Stoke-on-Trent, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stoke City boss Tony Pulis has ruled James Beattie and Danny Higginbotham out of Saturday's Premier League game at Fulham. Higginbotham could need a back operation that will end his season while B

Delhomme signs contract extension >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme signed a five-year contract extension on Thursday. More to follow.

Nadal eases into Barcelona quarters, semis >>
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Four-time reigning champion Rafael Nadal was an easy third-round winner Thursday at the $2.6 million Barcelona Open. The high-flying world No. 1 Nadal spanked helpless Belgian Christophe Rochu

Slump frustrates Juve's Del Piero >>
Turin, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Frustrated Juventus captain Alessandro Del Piero is disappointed with the way his side's title challenge has petered out. It had been thought that Juve would push Inter Milan all the way after it was kn

Bramble hopes to sign new deal with Wigan >>
Wigan, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wigan Athletic defender Titus Bramble is keen to sign a new contract with the Latics. The 27-year-old former Ipswich Town and Newcastle United star has enjoyed a solid campaign with Steve Bruce's side

Genoa's Thiago waits on summer bids >>
Genoa, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In-demand Genoa midfielder Thiago Motta is waiting to see what offers come in for his services next summer. The 26-year-old Brazil international has rebuilt his career in Italy following an injury-hit ti

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

MySportsbook is considered one of the finest football betting sportsbooks according to several surveys performed by independent industry analysts considering such factors as payout accuracy and timeliness, overall quality of website, and bettor satisfaction.

MySportsbook is a large company with strong financial backing. Considered the best sportsbook for betting football online You will find their customer service is second to none and their web site is extremely user friendly and easy-to-use. All major professional sports games are available. Once you signup with MySportsbook, you may never use another online sportsbook again.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football wagering needs.