Ruggeri helps save Argentina

Soccer Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If Argentina lifts the World Cup four years from now in Brazil, Oscar Ruggeri will be able to take some of the credit.

No, Ruggeri is not a fleet-footed winger capable of scoring bags of goals, or even a stalwart defender who will help to shore up a leaky defense.

Ruggeri was a coach on manager Diego Maradona's staff during the 2010 World Cup for Argentina, and he is partly to blame (or praise) for Maradona not being retained.

All indications over the past few weeks pointed to a four-year extension for the legendary Maradona, which would run through the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

Argentinean Football Association president Julio Grondona was firmly in Maradona's corner, but he wasn't as pleased with some of Maradona's coaching staff.

Ruggeri in particular came under scrutiny since he was the defensive coach who watched his side concede four goals in a quarterfinal loss to Germany earlier this month.

However, Maradona was adamant that he would need to be able to retain all of his staff if he were to continue, telling El Show del Futbol with typical boldness:

"If they touch a hair of one of my guys, even if the masseur or the kitman, I'm going. "I want to continue the adventure but not with (just) anyone. I chose these people. I want to continue working with them."

The problem is that some of the other board members did not agree that Maradona's staff warranted another chance, and he was instead let go in order to make way for a new coach.

"I would be a hypocrite if I didn't admit there was a general disliking of several aspects of the cycle that ended with the World Cup," general secretary Jose Luis Meiszner told cable channel C5N. "We did not see any intention to show humility, to say things should have been done better. There was no evaluation, no review, no conclusions. These are the things you have to think about in order to think about the future."

Humility has never been one of Maradona's greatest attributes, and if he had been retained as manager for another four years, Argentina would have many entertaining press conferences to look forward to, but no real chance at winning its third World Cup.

Maradona's appointment as manager in October 2008 was met with plenty of skepticism. After all, here was a man whose coaching resume consisted of a pair of one-year stints as a coach with smaller clubs in Argentina, making him grossly underqualified to take on such a big task.

Essentially, Maradona was a teenager with a learner's permit who was given the keys to a race car and asked to compete in the Daytona 500.

He got off to rocky start in qualification with an embarrassing 6-1 defeat at the hands of Bolivia, while also losing matches against Brazil, Ecuador and Paraguay.

In fact, qualification for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa was not secured until the final two games, as Argentina needed late goals to beat both Peru and Uruguay.

Maradona and his team were heavily criticized for such a poor showing, but they still had enough talent to be a factor in South Africa.

The one thing they were missing was an experienced coach on the bench, and that fact became horribly apparent in their quarterfinal thrashing against Germany.

After winning four successive games to start the competition based on having superior talent alone, Argentina came up against an equally talented German side, but Maradona was in no position to match wits with his German counterpart, Joachim Loew.

Germany was able to score an early goal, and from there, Loew had his team sit back and soak up the pressure from Argentina before finding openings on the counter attack.

It was a plan that worked to perfection, as Argentina time and again tried to break down a well-organized German defense, only to be turned away and punished on the break.

It was a bit like watching someone run headfirst into a brick wall over and over again, and hoping that the outcome will be different the next time they try.

In a situation like this, Maradona the player would simply drop into midfield, collect a pass and dribble through six defenders before scoring a wonderful goal.

However, Maradona the manager was only able to stand on the sidelines and clap his hands while shouting encouragement to his befuddled players, looking as confused and lost as they did.

Instead of making a tactical adjustment Maradona watched as Argentina continued to hit its head against the wall by attacking in the same manner over and over again.

The end result was not pretty; a 4-0 defeat and a plane ticket back to Buenos Aires.

The one area in which Maradona did excel was taking the focus off of his players and soaking it up himself.

Prior to the Germany match he engaged in a war of words with some of the German players, and while the ability to deal with pressure is a good quality for a coach, it is just a small part of the job.

Maradona clearly was in over his head tactically, and with such a gifted side at his disposal, it was a shame that they lacked any real direction.

You would have thought that the result against Germany would have been enough to convince Argentina's board that Maradona needed to be replaced, yet still they were ready to offer him four more years.

However, the poor performances of coaches like Ruggeri have now saved Argentina from making a terrible mistake and have given the board a chance to redeem itself by finding a qualified coach capable of taking the reigns.

Maradona's playing career is no less brilliant despite his failings as a coach, and his loyalty to his staff is admirable. However, he is clearly not the right man for the job, and thanks to Ruggeri, Argentina can now search for the man who is.

Gamblig Soccer Betting News

<< CAA Football teams find it hard to catch breath
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Quarterback Pat Devlin doesn't care if an opponent on Delaware's CAA Football schedule is from the north or the south. He says they could even come from the east or west, if that were possible. No matter the

<< Devils avoid arbitration with Fraser
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Devils have avoided arbitration with defenseman Mark Fraser and signed him to a one-year contract. Financial terms were not disclosed. Fraser had three goals and three assists in 61 games

<< Seahawks agree to terms with Tate
Renton, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Seahawks and second-round draft pick Golden Tate have agreed to terms on a contract. Tate confirmed the news via Twitter, posting: "Praise God!!! Terms and conditions have been reached for th

<< Line of Scrimmage: The T.O. Factor
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given their recent history of off-the-field problems, it's tempting to quip that the Cincinnati Bengals' signing of Terrell Owens is an attempt to improve the team's character. It's natural to laugh at an

<< Dolphins extend K Carpenter
West Palm Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins reportedly handed kicker Dan Carpenter a three-year contract extension Wednesday. The Palm Beach Post reports the pact runs through the 2013 season and is worth $6.205 million. The

De Guzman pleased with Mallorca move >>
Mallorca, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canadian-born midfielder Jonathan De Guzman is delighted to have sealed his move from Feyenoord to Mallorca. He makes his way to the La Liga outfit on a three-year deal after making over 100 appearances fo

McGowan joins St Mirren on loan >>
Paisley, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St Mirren have signed striker Paul McGowan on a season-long loan deal from SPL side Celtic. The 22-year-old has made just a handful of starts for the Bhoys to date and has previously been loaned

Raul completes Schalke switch >>
Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid legend Raul has confirmed the new chapter in his career by joining Bundesliga side Schalke. The 33-year-old striker has agreed to a two-year contract with Schalke after officia

Royals demote Marte, call up Bullington >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals optioned reliever Victor Marte to and recalled pitcher Bryan Bullington from Triple-A Omaha Wednesday. This will be Bullington's second stint with the big league club this s

Talbot adds heat to Winter Classic >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thank goodness the NHL still has a few guys like Max Talbot. Today's athletes are generally so concerned with image that they are constantly guarding themselves against saying something controversial. If y

Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year

Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.

Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.

Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to bet on the NBA. With the regular season about to hit the homestretch, it is important to point out that MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.